This lecture we study the expectation of the average of n i.i.d. random variables Xi, i=1,,n, i.e., the expectation of Qn=1n(X1++Xn). As n, we will introduce the central limit theorem and show that Qn converges to a normal distribution provided Var(Xi) exists.

Sums of Discrete Random Variables

Suppose X and Y are two independent discrete random variables with distribution functions pX(x) and pY(y). Let Z=X+Y, we want to find the the distribution function of Z.

Suppose that X=k, where k is some integer. Then Z=z if and only if Y=zk. So the event Z=z is the union of the pairwise disjoint events (X=k) and (Y=zk) where k runs over the integers. Since these events are pairwise disjoint, we have (6-1)P(Z=z)=k=P(X=k)P(Y=zk) which is the distribution function of the random variable Z.

Definition. Let X and Y be two independent integer-valued random variables, with distribution functions pX(x) and pY(y) respectively. Then the **convolution** of pX(x) and pY(y) is the distribution function pZ=pXpY given by pZ(z)=xpX(x)pY(zx) for xZ. The function pZ(z) is the distribution function of the random variable Z=X+Y.

Sums of Continuous Random Variables

Definition. Let X and Y be two continuous random variables with density functions fX(x) and fY(y) respectively. Assume that both fX(x) and fY(y) are defined for all real numbers. Then the **convolution** fg of f and g is the function given by (6-2)(fXfY)(z)=+fX(zy)fY(y)dy=+fY(zx)fX(x)dx.

Theorem. Let X and Y be two independent random variables with density functions fX(x) and fY(y) defined for all x and y. Then the sum Z=X+Y is a random variable with density function fZ(z), where fZ is the convolution of fX and fY.

Theorem. Let {Xi}, i=1,,n be a sequence of independent random variables with density functions fX1(x),,fXn(x) respectively, then we have fX1++Xn(x)=fX1(fX2(fXn))(x).

Example. [Sum of two independent uniform random variables] Let X and Y be random variables describing our choices and Z=X+Y their sum. Then we have fX(x)=fY(x)={1 if 0x10 otherwise  and the density function for the sum is given by fZ(z)=+fX(zy)fY(y)dy=01fX(zy)dy. Now the integrand is 0 unless 0zy1 and then it is 1. So if 0z1, we have fZ(z)=0zdy=z, while if 1<z2, we have fZ(z)=z11dy=2z, and if z<0 or z>2 we have fZ(z)=0. Hence fZ(z)={z, if 0z12z, if 1<z20, otherwise 

Example. [Sum of two independent exponential random variables] Let X,Y, and Z=X+Y denote the relevant random variables, and fX , fY , and fZ their densities. Then fX(x)=fY(x)={λeλx, if x00, otherwise  If z>0, fZ(z)=+fX(zy)fY(y)dy=0zλeλ(zy)λeλydy=0zλ2eλzdy=λ2zeλz, while if z<0, fZ(z)=0. Hence fZ(z)={λ2zeλz, if z00, otherwise